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Monday, September 17, 2007

Response to Blog Talk Radio session about real estate market

It shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone that a 30-minute podcast about today's real estate market attracted so much attention.

What was surprising to me was the number of real estate agents who downloaded and listened to the session. I would have thought that they would know better than anyone else what the market was like.

But then there's that inevitable head-in-the-sand approach to bad news. If you don't acknowledge it, maybe it'll go away.

Unfortunately, this won't work with today's real estate market. If you haven't listened to it yet, click on the Podcast Radio link on this site and listen as two real estate agents (one is me) and two lenders discuss today's market.

One lender even goes so far as to say that in his 24 years of being in the mortgage business, this is the absolute worst market that he's ever seen.

Not so surprisingly, less than A-paper loans are also next to impossible to get. The debacle with interest-only loan defaults is going to make it virtually impossible for most if not all credit-challenged home buyers to get a loan, regardless of how much money they've managed to save.

So who will benefit?

Real estate investors with very deep pockets, that's who. With double digit percentage foreclosures, there's going to be a lot of foreclosed real estate that is and will continue to be available for those who have lots of cash.

What is my short-term outlook for the real estate market?

Now that we're past Labor Day, don't look for an upswing in the market, at least not until the middle to the end of March, 08. If the end of the first quarter and the second full quarter of 2008 don't show a market uptick of home sales, then 2008, in my opinon, will languish like 2007.

By my estimates, the Northern Virginia roster of licensed real estate agents has also dropped precipitously, possibly by as much as a third. If sellers don't want to sell and buyers don't want to pay high prices of yesterday, then agents can't make a living.

Of course established agents with a solid referral network will survive and do so handsomely, even if not as well as two years ago. These professionals will have educated their sellers and buyers accordingly, and will have positioned both sets of clients into more realistic expectations.

My last words ... Sellers, Buyers and Agents alike. Hang unto your hats. It's going to be a hell of a ride.

Ray

Sunday, September 09, 2007

Listen to a blog talk radio program about today's market

This past Saturday I hosted, along with two loan officers and one other real estate agent, a 30 minute blog talk radio program that you may want to listen to by clicking on the Blog TalkRadio button at the top of this page.

The panelists are on the front lines of the market today and know first hand what's going on. No hype; no unrealisting future projections, just the skinny of how things are where the rubber meets the road.

Ray

Sunday, April 22, 2007

How's the Market doing today?

You can't go anywhere today without someone opining about the real estate market today. It seems that everyone has an opinion.

What isn't clear to me is where these opinions are coming from. I suspect that many of them are wishful thinking; others, I'm sure, are based on the restatement of comments heard from others.

Frankly, I don't think anyone has a clear handle on what is going to happen.

Let's look at the facts.

Interest rates are still low, regardless of what the doomsayers are spouting in the popular press. Whenever the interest rates are in the single digits, life is good!

Why, then aren't buyers jumping through hoops to buy houses?

The problem in many instances is that sellers are still hoping that the sellers' market of the last four year returns and blood-bath profits will return. I'm pleased to note that many good real estate agents have done their best to educate their seller-clients about their inability to stuff the genie back in the bottle, and to resort to more reasonable prices.

Buyers also contribute to the problem. They see home prices drop as sellers slowly come to their senses, and they erroneously hope to time the real estate market until it bottoms out.

That strategy has never worked in the stock market and I dare say that it will not work in real estate either.

What then is going to happen?

I genuinely don't know! Sales during the spring and early summer will tell us a lot about whether the market has rebounded or whether we're going to have to endure another year of slumpy sales.

If only common sense would return to the buying and selling public.

Ray

Saturday, December 02, 2006

Predictable Results for Final Exam

The final exam mentioned in a previous post is over. I've tabulated the scores and, as usual, there are no surprises.

Having taught well over 1,500 students who've sought to sit for their Virginia real estate license, I've developed a knack for predicting which of my students will pass and which will not. By the second or third class I know who is studying and who is not.

And of course everyone has the right to enroll in a class and then srew off. My concern is with recent immigrants who clearly want to work towards a better life, but whose command of the English language is such that they can't pass the exams. I've knows some very intelligent people who couldn't get past the language barrier and who subsequently flushed out of the system.

I genuinely feel for these students. During the exam I see their bewilderment while struggling over yet another English term that they've not yet mastered.

My advise is to keep studying English and retake the exam when ready. It's not an easy test for English-proficient applicants; I can just imagine the difficulty level for those who struggle with the language.

Ray

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Final Exam time for my students

Tomorrow, my class will take its final exam prior to sitting for the VA state exam in preparation for their VA real estate salesperson’s license.

This always happens at exam time. I sit at my desk, watching them answer the 140 questions on the final exam which will be the culmination of 60 hours of classroom instructions. I note their facial expressions as they move from one question to another, and I wonder how their lives will change once they have their licenses. Will they be better off as they dreamed when they signed up for the course, or will they succumb to the pressures of this commission-only-paid profession that will surely challenge many of them?

I wish them all the best in the world as they transform themselves from being my students to becoming my colleagues.

Ray

Monday, November 27, 2006

Thanksgiving Holiday weekend

Don't get me wrong, I love my job. Being a managing broker and a property manager of quite a few properties is a challenge and a responsibility that I adore.

But boy-oh-boy, has it been fun and relaxing to have four-and-a-half days off with only one minor emergency to deal with.

Our daughters where home from college; our Thanksgiving dinner was superb (my wife is part Italian and that part is a chef!) and the rest of the weekend was absolutely blissful. I managed to do some recreational writing; I read a book and four magazines and my wife and I enjoyed some good movies.

But alas, it's 3:30 am on Monday morning and I'm fighting the need to go to bed because once I do, my next conscious awareness will be the beginning of a new work week.

Damn, it just went too quickly.

Ray

Saturday, November 25, 2006

Real Estate business ... not a get-rich-quick scheme

Someone has to say it. Selling real estate is not a get-rich-quick scheme. If it were, everyone would be doing it. Oh, I think that it's a wonderful career and I've certainly benefitted from it, but the fact remains that one has to struggle and work hard in order to make this business a viable one.

I teach real estate licensing courses in Virginia and I am always somewhat shocked by the pie-in-the-sky attitudes that many of my students have when they enroll in my classes. I recall a number of years ago when the dot.com industry took it on the chin and my classes were filled with 20 and 30-year old high flyers whose stock options had been ripped away overnight. They were living in McMansions and they were tickling foreclosures because as unemployed homeowners they could no longer afford to pay their stratospheric mortgages. On more than one occasion I was asked when could they expect to roll in the big bucks because the third missed mortgage payment was just around the corner.

The truth about real estate sales is that the great majority of licensees have to work as hard in this business as they would have to in any other one in order to get established. The good news is that with hard work, a lot of sacrifices and just a little luck, there is a potential pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Conscientious real estate agents have literally changed their lives for the better; it just didn't happen overnight.

Ray

Thursday, November 23, 2006

Interest Only Loans

I know that many first-time home buyers, who otherwise would not have qualified for a loan, saw their dreams come alive by getting into their new home with an interest-only loan. I foresee dark days ahead for many of these home owners because their pain is about to start.

Interest-only loans were designed to allow otherwise unqualified buyers to get the financing for a home. By structuring the monthly payments in such a way, that for a predetermined time, only the Interest was being paid off and not the Principal, buyers were banking on a future equity build-up through the increase in the property's market value. These ill-founded dreams came at a time when sales prices were already stretching the bubble to near-explosive limits.

The sales pitch was convincing. Although the monthly mortgage payments weren't paying down the loan with this interest-only loan, the increase in the property's effective market value would increase its equity and thus provide for easy refinancing at affordable interest rates into a, say fixed interest loan or even an ARM. The interest-only loan would then be replaced with such a standard loan product and everything would be fine. Lenders often failed to mention or possibly opted not to believe that the real estate market, already at historic price levels, was bound to come down and that the rise in property equity values would not happen, and that the type of refinancing that was projected to replace the interest-only loan would be nearly impossible.

Unfortunately, many home buyers, especially unsophisticated first-time home buyers, were thus unaware of the dangers ahead. Equity values, indeed, did not rise and these owners now only have two options. They will either allow their interest-only loans to migrate into the much higher fixed-rate or adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) that are part of the original deal, or they can attempt to refinance into some type of a new principal pay-off loan. Neither option will be financially viable since the monthly loan payments will most assuredly jump to unacceptable amounts. The end result for many home owners, who will be unable to afford the much higher monthly loan payments, will be a foreclosure on their home.

HUD has already looked at this phenomenon and has projected a dramatic increase in owners' default rates from a traditional low of 1.5% to well over 6%. This will present wonderful opportunities for foreclosure investors but will ruin many homeowners' credit ratings.

This emergence of the interest-only loans reminded me of the time when the balloon-payment loans emerged in the 80's. A lot of borrowers were hurt then too.

Ray

What's Going on in this Market?

Everything that I've read about this real estate market suggests that it is in a "Corrective" mode. Pundits use this term to signify a reversal of the stratospheric prices that sellers enjoyed for four years through the latter part of 2005. In fact, if working real estate agents are asked about this "Corrective" mode they'll tell you that it has corrected itself right into a CRASH.

Inventory remains at an all-time high because sellers refuse to accept the fact that they have missed the boat. It's not 2005 anymore and buyers aren't going to be bled now, especially since they are calling the shots. Demand is down, to a large degree because investors have pulled up their stakes. Those who've remained in the game are, to a large degree, living in a negative cash-flow situation. Flipping their properties now will result in a loss that can only be partially recouped with a write-off on their 1040, Schedule E. Income investors who have tenants offsetting their monthly PITI payments are also in a negative cash-flow because rents are a long way from catching up with the exorbitant mortgage payments.

The old adage, that what goes up must come down, is now the cry of pain for those who were looking for a killing in the real estate market. Equity isn't going to grow for a while, and those who bought at the end of the bubble, are going to have to wait a few years just to break even.

Oh yeah, Happy Thanksgiving!

Ray

Monday, February 13, 2006

All alone at the office

On Friday my assistant, who left early to run some errants, called me to say that she had run into a car ... again. She just bought her new SUV a couple of months ago and now it already needed fender repair.

This weekend, the Washington, DC area got it's first real snow storm of the season. When I came to the office, my assistant wasn't here; she had to take care of her car AND since school was out, she stayed home with her young daughter.

So, no assistant, snow on the ground and a desk piled up with work. This could only mean ... TREES THAT FELL ON HOUSES. Yup, I had to run around to a number of different houses, take pics and call insurance companies.

I wanted so much to have an easy day.

Ray

Friday, February 10, 2006

It was a Goat!

Today I sent a plumber to one of my properties because the tenant complained about a drip in one of the faucets in the basement.

When the plumber was finished with the job he called me to tell me that he had just had an interesting service call.

Specifically, when he was bending over the sink to look at the problem, he felt something nudge him on his rear. Shocked, he looked around to see ... a GOAT.

There was a goat in the basement!

It turns out that this goat was slated to be the tenants' dinner and they thought nothing about keeping it in the basement. Oh yes, these are tenants from another country where keeping a goat in the house is probably the norm and not the exception.

In any case, I had to call the local police to escort the goat out of the unit. I'm sure that that was an ordeal because the basement was not a walk-out; there isn't a door to the outside. The police officers must therefore have walked the goat up the stairs, through the hall, into the foyer and out of the front door.

To top it off, the tenant is now irate with me, I suppose because I have deprived him and his family of their McGoat dinner.

Sheesh! It takes all types.

Ray

Thursday, February 09, 2006

Here Come the Lawyers ... Again!

I'm actually a fan of attorneys. In my line of work I depend on them often, and I'm glad that I have access to them.

In Virginia, where I am a licensed real estate broker, attorneys are making a run for some of our compensation that doesn't sit well with me.

Specifically, there is a collection of lawyers who want the Virginia legislature to pass a statute that prevents real estate agents from writing real estate sales contracts. They want the law to reflect that only attorneys should be able to write these contracts, for a fee, of course.

When it is mentioned that consumers would suffer financially by having to pay an additional service fee to attorneys, they have responded that that fee should then be subtracted from the commission charged by real estate agents.

Candidly, these attorneys admit that this is nothing more than a money-grab situation, but one that they think they can win.

There is no question in my mind that an attorney should be involved in special purpose or unique sales contracts, but the run of the mill sales contract is nothing more than a pre-printed form that we then fill in the blanks. How much money is being offered, what is the proposed date of settlement, and so on.

In this matter, I think that the public is served best by keeping it the way it is.

Ray

Now Banks Want to get in on the Action

You may have read in the popular press that banks and other lending institutions want the ability to sell real estate. Their argument is that since many real estate companies offer lending services, why not allow lending services to also sell real estate.

On first sight, the logic holds true, but upon closer examination it becomes obvious that the consumer may not be served well in such an arrangement.

When I was actively selling real estate before I became a broker, I, too, offered my company's lending services to my buyer-clients. I also offered other lender options if those options were better for my client. In my case and in the case of every other real estate agent, our responsibility was to serve the REAL ESTATE needs of our clients, not the income needs of our company's lending division.

I'm concerned that if banks get in on the deal, that the primary responsibility of bank employees, working as licensed real estate agents, will be to get the loan deal, where the purchase of the house is the means to an end. That is not good for the consumer whose need for a house should be the primary focus, with the loan as the means to an end.

Ray

Wednesday, February 08, 2006

There's an eBook in the making

What fun! Now I have another project in mind. Besides real estate, I also know a little about stock market investing. I was an associate director for the National Association of Investors Corporation (the investment club people) and have had my investment club for 16 years.

Over the years I've taught literally hundreds if not thousands of people how to invest in the stock market.

And then it came to me the other day, why not write an eBook about stock market investing and sell it for a very reasonable price on the internet?

That thought sparked another idea ... why not also write an eBook about how to start and manage an investment club?

And of course why not write an eBook about how to manage one's rental real estate?

The first book is about 25% finished. I think it'll come in at around 70 or 80 pages.

What fun!

Ray

Tuesday, January 24, 2006

We call it a Hotel

In property management this is becoming more of a problem. You rent a home to a family, only to find out that they are subletting to others.

This morning I had the occasion to visit one of my properties. I gave the tenants two weeks notice of my visit, knowing full well that they would clean the place up. What I did not expect was that they would not even try to hide the fact that an additional SIX people lived in the house.

How did I find this out?

I counted the number of toothbrushes in the different bathrooms and then confronted the person who was on the lease.

Now I have to either get them to move these extra people out (since they are now in violation of county code) or evict them.

Just another day in property management.

Ray

Sunday, January 22, 2006

Horrible Final Exam Results

Last Thursday I gave the final exam for my Virginia real estate licensing course. Since the market had made a sharp turn on or around November 1, my class had dropped from an enrollement of about 60 to a mere 22 students. I don't know whether the low enrollment was indicative of what students anticipated would happen with the local real estate market, but I had one of the worst final exams, ever!

Out of the 16 students who had finished their work and who were thus entitled to take the final, only 8 passed. That's a 50% pass rate which is the worst that I've ever had.

Mind you, not a single question on the final should have been unknown. Every question, every calculation had been presented in one of the daily quizzes that I gave. I even instructed the class to be sure to carefully study the quizzes because they might be instrumental in the make-up of the final exam.

Most of the 8 people who passed, passed in the high ninety percentile. Most of the 8 people of failed, failed miserably.

I think that I must have had a bunch of knuckleheads in my class because I maintain that if my students study the material that I pass out, they will pass with flying colors.

I'm really bummed about this.

Ray